Horse Tipping Systems

Primus - Early Retirment of a Champion Race Horse.

2007-05-30T18:29:00.000-07:00

The John O’Shea-trained Primus has been retired after an injury halted his preparation prior to the Group 1 BTC Cup (1200m) just over a fortnight ago.

The four-year-old son of champion sire Flying Spur has a promising stallion career ahead of him and the decision to retire will allow Primus to debut at a yet to be named stud later this year.
The group winner and three-time group one placegetter was only just working his way into race fitness at the time of the injury. O’Shea expected his charge to prove competitive in the upcoming Brisbane features including the $1 million Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) at Eagle Farm in June. “I thought that with natural improvement after racing Primus was going to prove very hard to beat in the Stradbroke,” O’Shea revealed.

“Being a four year old entire he takes a lot of work to reach an optimum level of fitness. He was nearing his peak and was working as good as ever. “He was suited to the Stradbroke and it’s a shame he won’t get the chance to sign off with a with a group one win. I’ve never had a doubt he was group one class and his record only confirms that.”

In a career conducted consistently at racing’s highest level, Primus was three times group one placed. Primus was first given a chance in the Caulfield Guineas (1600m) where he was a fast finishing third to God’s Own and Paratroopers, beaten just over a length.
The bay then backed up his spring performances with a string of fine efforts during the Sydney autumn carnival.

Primus finished third in the Group 1 Randwick Guineas (1600m), beaten less than a length, before narrowly missing in the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m). Despite travelling three and four wide throughout, Primus unleashed a great turn of foot to finish third, beaten a neck by a head. Clearly suited to the sprint-mile caper, O’Shea restricted Primus to such races for the remainder of his career. It proved a successful move as Primus recorded consecutive stakes wins in the Listed Show County (1200m) and the Group 3 Tramway Quality (1400m).The victories added to Primus’ Listed Ming Dynasty (1400m) win and debut salute, secured as a three year old. Primus retires with four wins and six placings from 17 career starts, amassing $524,780 in total prizemoney.

Tips for 12th February 2007

2007-02-11T17:32:00.000-08:00

Tips for today ... lets hope the run continues ...

Donald Race 1 : 5
Donald Race 3 : 5
Donald Race 3 : 10
Donald Race 5 : 1
Donald Race 6: 5
Donald Race 6 : 1
Donald Race 8 : 2
Donald Race 9 : 2
Donald Race 9 : 4

Hobart Race 3 : 1
Hobart Race 4 : 1
Hobart Race 6 : 7

Queanbeyan Race 1 : 6
Queanbeyan Race 2 : 4
Queanbeyan Race 4 : 2
Queanbeyan Race 8 : 2

Results for 11th Feb 2007

2007-02-11T00:32:00.000-08:00

All results are based on best of Betfair price or Tote.

Bathurst Race 1 : 2 - WIN $11.00
Bathurst Race 2 : 1 - 2nd
Bathurst Race 4 : 2 - WIN $5.00
Bathurst Race 5 : 8 - WIN $4.30
Bathurst Race 5 : 2 - Not Placed
Bathurst Race 6 : 4 - 2nd
Bathurst Race 7 : 3 - WIN $2.34
Bathurst Race 8 : 1 - Not Placed

Naracoorte Race 2 : 7 - Not Placed
Naracoorte Race 4 : 2 - WIN $3.80
Naracoorte Race 4 : 4 - Not Placed
Naracoorte Race 5 : 1 - Not Placed
Naracoorte Race 7 : 1 - Not Placed
Naracoorte Race 7 : 2 - Not Placed
Naracoorte Race 8 : 1 - Not Placed

Pakenham Race 4 : 1 - Not Placed
Pakenham Race 5 : 3 - 3rd
Pakenham Race 6 : 1 - Not Placed
Pakenham Race 7 : 3 - WIN $5.10

Sunshine Coast Race 1 : 4 - Not Placed
Sunshine Coast Race 4 : 13 - 2nd
Sunshine Coast Race 5 : 3 - Not Placed
Sunshine Coast Race 6 : 1 - 2nd
Sunshine Coast Race 7 : 1 - Not Placed

Wyong Race 1 : 1 - WIN $5.80
Wyong Race 2 : 2 - 2nd
Wyong Race 2 : 1 - 3rd
Wyong Race 4 : 2 - 2nd
Wyong Race 4 : 3 - Not Placed
Wyong Race 5 : 1 - WIN$2.66
Wyong Race 5 : 3 - 2nd
Wyong Race 6 : 1 - WIN $3.70
Wyong Race 8 : 1 - WIN $1.74

Colac Race 4 : 2 - WIN $1.72
Colac Race 5 : 5 - Not Placed
Colac Race 6 : 3 - 3rd
Colac Race 6 : 4 - WIN $4.10

Albany Race 2 : 2 - Not Placed
Albany Race 3 : 2 - WIN $3.90
Albany Race 3 : 3 - 2nd
Albany Race 4 : 2 - WIN $5.30
Albany Race 7 : 1 - Not Placed

Total Invested : $420
Return : $604.60

Profit of $204.60 (44%)

Not a bad day at all.

Tips for 11th Feb 2007 - Part 3

2007-02-10T17:52:00.001-08:00

Albany Race 2 : 2
Albany Race 3 : 2
Albany Race 3 : 3
Albany Race 4 : 2
Albany Race 7 : 1

Good Luck.

Tips for 11th Feb 2007 - Part 2

2007-02-10T15:34:00.000-08:00

Here are the Colac Tips

Colac Race 4 : 2
Colac Race 5 : 5
Colac Race 6 : 3
Colac Race 6 : 4

Tips for Sunday 11 Feb 2007 - Part 1

2007-02-10T15:18:00.000-08:00

Since the last system I was using has run into a bad trot here is another system that is producing consistent results with many more bets.

Bathurst Race 1 : 2
Bathurst Race 2 : 1
Bathurst Race 4 : 2
Bathurst Race 5: 8
Bathurst Race 5 : 2
Bathurst Race 6 : 4
Bathurst Race 7 : 3
Bathurst Race 8 : 1

Naracoorte Race 2 : 7
Naracoorte Race 4 : 2
Naracoorte Race 4 : 4
Naracoorte Race 5 : 1
Naracoorte Race 7 : 1
Naracoorte Race 7 : 2
Naracoorte Race 8 : 1

Pakenham Race 4 : 1
Pakenham Race 5 : 3
Pakenham Race 6 : 1
Pakenham Race 7 : 3

Sunshine Coast Race 1 : 4
Sunshine Coast Race 4 : 13
Sunshine Coast Race 5 : 3
Sunshine Coast Race 6 : 1
Sunshine Coast Race 7 : 1

Wyong Race 1 : 1
Wyong Race 2 : 2
Wyong Race 2 : 1
Wyong Race 4 : 2
Wyong Race 4 : 3
Wyong Race 5 : 1
Wyong Race 5 : 3
Wyong Race 6 : 1
Wyong Race 8 : 1

Albany and Colac to be posted later.

Tips for Saturday 10 Feb 2007

2007-02-09T14:09:00.000-08:00

Some more tips for today:

Hobart Race 5 - Spirit of Archie

Newcastle Race 4 : Ellen may

Newcastle Race 7 : Grandazz

Randwick Race 2 : Deefour

Randwick Race 3 : Royal Lineup

Good Luck

Tips for the 9th Feb 2007

2007-02-07T17:30:00.000-08:00

Here are a few more tips for tommorrow :

Selections

Canterbury Race 7 (FURNITURE ONE GROUP HANDICAP): MUSKET
Last Race Video Comment : 5th 2W. Angled into narrow split 150m. Raced away.

Walcha Race 8 (GRAZIERS CLASS 1 HANDICAP) : YOUNG BID
Last Race Video Comment : quickly crossed to sit on leader then took on pace trail, imp join lead app t & strt. Passed out wide but driven back to lead.

Good Luck

Tips

2007-02-07T02:33:00.000-08:00

OK Time to start dollowing some systems on here. I have not had a chance to keep this up to date as I have been hard at work investing in the stock market.

But i think I now have a simple system which I will be updateing on here whenever I get a chance. Todays only pick was :

Randwick Kensington Race 2 : CARSKI DRUM
Comment from the last run was : lobbed along mostly 7th trail, well off pace early, coming wide app t & 5th strt. Urged/driven level, went head to head & got bob in hnds/hls.

Result : WIN at $5.40 / $2.30

Tommorrows Selections :

Gosford Race 3 : YOU RAISE ME UP
Comment from the last run was : 3rd out 3W. Battled strongly. Drew clear final 50m.
My only query is the barrier draw.

Gosford Race 5 : INTRALASE
Comment from the last run was : Drifted back along rails. Battled away along fence.

Good Luck.

2007-01-28T02:40:00.000-08:00

Trainer Tony Noonan is looking at taking classy gelding Benedetti to Dubai for up to three races over the international carnival. The five-year-old's impressive win in Saturday's Comedy King Handicap (1600m) at Sandown prompted Noonan to consider an overseas jaunt.
Benedetti, who is by little-known stallion Second Empire, took his prizemoney tally to over $250,000 with Saturday's victory. The races Noonan are looking at for him overseas include a $120,000 1600 metre event on February 9, a $120,000 1777 metre event on February 23 and possibly a $175,000 2000 metre race on March 8.

Could be interesting to see how he goes. Personally I don't think he will be competitive but it is always hard to tell with horses going overseas.

Good Luck to him though.

A profitable Horse Racing System

2007-01-09T23:57:00.000-08:00

Here is a simple system that makes a profit :

Back any horse that is highest tab number(8..24) jumping from barrier 15 or higher.

Test Period : 16 months

Bets : 326

ROT : $367

Winners : 17

7 Months profitable out of 16 months tested.

Avg around 20 bets a month

Good Luck.

Melbourne Cups Tips ( and Why )

2006-11-04T18:12:00.000-08:00

Melbourne cup is the race that we all like to have a bet on. It is the premier race in Australia and there is always many opinions on who should win.

I liek a few horses in this race and here are the reasons :

YEATS - Good Jockey, Good Form, Fitness looks good in trackwork. This should be the horse to beat. I know international horses rarely win the Melbourne cup but this horse can do it.

DIZZELLE - Had spectacular run in the caulfield cup. Can make the distance. It will be at good odds.

POP ROCK - Great Caulfield run with best sectionals. Was very unlucky in the run and should have a better chance in Melbourne cup. Will like the extra distance.

ACTIVATION - Nice horse and is in good form.

TAWQEET - Only throwing him in as he is fav. I don't think he will win but may be in the placings.

Good Luck if you bet ...

Neruals for first 4 races tommorrow

2006-10-04T04:47:00.000-07:00

Geelong
1. 11,6
2. 1,2
3. 9,2
4. 4,1

Gosford
1. 1,2
2. 7,5
3. 2,1
4. 5,2

Geraldton
1. 4,7
2. 1,2
3. 2,9
4. 1,2

Rockhampton
1. 2,10
2. 2,4
3. 10,8
4. 1,5

Woodville
1. 2,4
2. 8,11
3. 1,7
4. 2,7

2006-10-02T04:30:00.000-07:00

Kembla Grange and Kyneton Neural Selections

KG
1 3,5
2 11,10
3 10,12
4 1,9
5 3,2
6 2,1
7 10,4
8 10,1
9 1,5

Kyn
1 1,11
2 3,13
3 12,8
4 3,9
5 2,5
6 2,10
7 1,2
8 8,1

We Got a winner yesterday lets keep it going

2006-09-21T04:05:00.000-07:00

Toowoomba Race 3 : QUEENIE AMBER
Toowoomba Race 5 : LADYS OPINION
Toowoomba Race 6 : ADAVALE HORNET (SLOW or Better)

2006-09-20T05:51:00.000-07:00

I have a number of systems I am following that are showing consistent profit.

Here are the selections :

21st September 2006
Newcastle Race 1 : LEXINGTON STEEL
Newcastle Race 8 : BIKKIE TIN BLUES
Newcastle Race 8 : FAIR TRIAL (Only if a SLOW track)
Newcastle Race 9 : LE CAVION (GOOD Track or Better)
New Zeland Race 8 : WOODBURY BELLE

Good Luck

Unitab 100 Raters - tabonline ratings

2006-08-07T05:09:00.000-07:00

I ran a quick test against the unitab rating also known as the tabonline rating for the last 2 years and got the following results:

Ratings for 100
Selections : 24582
Win $ : 20998.6
Place $:21739.2

Ratings for 99
Selections : 8259
Win $ : 7291.7
Place $:7332.9

If anyone wants the rest down to 52 let me know...

Horse Racing is a profitable business if you know how to make a profit !!

Horse to follow in Spring

2006-08-03T19:56:00.000-07:00

Here are some hores worth following in spring :

1 . CATECHUCHU
2 . CHESS RECORD
3 . DE BEERS
4 . DESERT WAR
5 . DIEGO GARCIA
6 . EREMEIN
7 . GREY SWALLOW
8 . HEADTURNER
9 . LAD OF THE MANOR
10 . MALCOLM
11 . MISS FINLAND
12 . OUR SMOKING JOE
13 . RACING TO WIN
14 . RAILINGS
15 . REWAAYA
16 . SERENADE ROSE
17 . SPIELMEISTER
18 . SPINNEY
19 . TESTAFIABLE
20 . ZIPPING

These horses will be the premier horses that I will be wathcing through the season.

These are the basis for my horse racing tipping selections this spring.

Good luck at the Races.

What to look at ?

2006-05-07T03:37:00.000-07:00

There are so many things to examin in horse racing it can be a bit daunting.

The best thing to remember is that you really only need to know a couple fo things.

1. Which horse can run the quickest ?
2. Which horse is fit enough to run the quicket ?
3. Which horse will have the best run with the least amount of obstacles ?

This is essentially what we are all trying to determine when we look at the sectionals, the last placings, days since last run, etc.

For the first question you should look at :

Secitonals
Race Times
Beaten Margins (or Winning Margins)
Placings in previous runs

The the fittest horse you need to look at :

Placings in last run
Days since last run
Beaten Margins in last run

The horse which will have the least obstacles can be determined by:

Speed maps
Barrier
Pace of the race

Once these 3 things are analysed you should have the most likely winner with a few contenders.

Good Luck.

System variables (continued)

2006-01-17T19:37:00.000-08:00

4. Place Percentage

Why ?
A horse may have had a bit of poor fortune in its run and was not able to make the win, but it was good enough to be close and thus ran second or third. By running secondor third the horse has shown it was in the top few of the race.

Problems ?
There are many horses who seem to be happy to run second or third without getting up for the win. They don't want to lead they just want to follow. These horses usually have a high number of 2nd and 3rd placings with not many wins.

Commonsense Meter
Medium-High

Good Luck.

System Variables ?(Continued)

2006-01-16T17:19:00.000-08:00

3. Lengths Beaten
Why?
A horse might be close in the race even though the position does not indicate this good form. Obviously a horse losing by 1 length and coming 6th should have run a much better race (and had a better chance of winning) than a horse running 4th and losing by 15 lengths. The first horse had a chance of winning but was just not good enough on the day. The second horse had no chance and was beaten by a long way.

Problems ?
This all depeneds on the class of competition once again. Its amaziong how often this comes up. A horse losing 15 lengths in a 700K race may actually have ran a better time than the horse finishing 1 length behind in a 7K race.

Commonsense Meter
Medium

Unitab Tipsters ...

2006-01-16T04:42:00.000-08:00

I have kept a record of the tipsters for unitab starting this year. I thought I would post some of the stats.

Best 3 ROT Tipsters:
Brendan Tupper 113%
Ernie Manning 106%
Ian Humpheries 103%
Average of All Tipsters 83% ( -17% profit)

Best Strike Rate Tipsters:
Ernie Manning 38%
Ian Humpheries 36%
Brendan Tupper 35%
Average of All Tipsters 30%

Highest Avg Winning Price Tipster:
Howard Walter $3.36
Brendan Tupper $3.25
Ian Humpheries $2.88
Avg of All Tipsters $2.77

Most Active Tipster (Bets):
Kevin Casey 77
Mal James 74
Steve Moran 57
Avg of All Tipsters 48

I'll keep these up to date every few days if possible.

Last Start Win

2006-01-15T18:40:00.000-08:00

Last start Win
Why?
If a horse won last start it shows that the horse has potential and is fit. It also shows the horse has won a race. A lot of systems use this as a measure of fitness and form. Obviously a horse who wins must have been fit and in form.

Problems with using this indicator
Some horses won their last start a long time ago (ie 6months + ). Also there is a difference between horses winning a 7K race to a horse winning a 700K race. The size of the win is very important in this context. For example a Horse who ran 3rd by 0.2 lengths in a 700K race could be a much better bet than a horse running 1st in a 7K race and winning by 5 lengths.

Commonsense Meter
Medium

System Variables

2005-12-20T17:48:00.000-08:00

Each day I will look at one of things people use in systems.

Here is the first.

1. Win % - Most systems look at the win percentage.
Why?
Because win are backing horses for a win so it would be better to back horses which have/are winning. This factor in itself does tell us much as it does not tell us if this horses has a high win % because it won 1 from 1 (thus 100%). It needs to be taken with a grain of salt until applied to other factors such as class and distance. Its no good backing a sprinter to win a 3200m race against Makybe Diva because it has a slightly better win percentage.
Problems?
Win % needs to be taken over at least 5-6 races. You alos need to check when the wins occurred as a horse winning a lot of races early in its career might no longer be winning any races. This needs to also be looked at in the context of the competition. A horse winning a 7K race is not the same as a horse winning a 70K race or a 700K race.
Commonsense Meter
High

System 3 - 366 System

2005-12-04T17:55:00.000-08:00

This system goes around the forums every few months. It is a good system that has a good basis.

How is it done:
There are various forms of this system but most of them revolve around finding races where there is a horse which has a win strike rate of at least 30% and a place strike rate of at least 66%. There are subtle differences between mutations of the system on whether to back horses in certain grades, whether to back 2 horses in the same race, etc.

Reasons behind why it might work:
This system is based on good advice. Stick with horses which have proven they can win and win consistently.

Statistics if Available:
None that I have as of yet.

Rating: (five star system):
Ease of Use : ****
Profitablity : Unknown
Strike Rate : Unknown
Overall : ****

Comments:
This is based on sound advice and can be a worthwhile system. The problem with this system is like all others which have a high strike rate and that is a low dividend. These horses are usually odds on or if showing good odds are usually up in a grade which is beyond them. Definately worth investigating.

System 2 - Beaten Favourites

2005-12-04T02:30:00.000-08:00

Beaten favourites can be a hit and a miss type of betting scheme, it generally involves betting on a a last race favourite who lost.

How is it done:
Bascially you look at the previous race ( or races ) of each horse and find horses where they were favourites but lost.

Reasons behind why it might work:
All beaten favourites are generally underbet by the public. Punters see that they were beaten last time when favourite and assume that he could be beaten again today.

Statistics if Available:
None that I have as of yet.

Rating: (five star system)
Ease of Use : ****
Profitablity : Unknown
Strike Rate : Unknown
Overall : **

Comments:
There are too many unknowns with this type of betting scheme. I haven't done any figures but if someone wants to do the research for me it would be appreciated. I would look at horses which may have lost in very compeitive races last time when they were favourite and are either dropping in class for this race or the horse looks like it could improve. This of course requires more analysis and the ease of use dramtically reduces.

System 1 - Second Favs in Group 1 Races

2005-12-04T02:16:00.000-08:00

The first system to be layed out on this blog is one a lot of recreational punters use. It is a favourite for those who like the occassional flutter and want to get a better price then the favourite is offereing.

How is it done:
It involves sticking to the best quality races ( Group 1 ) and betting on the 2nd favourite.

Reasons behind why it might work:
Punters usually overbet the favourite and sometimes create false favourites. The second favourite is thus underbet and pushed into profitability. Bookies have to balance their books and with all the weight of money on the favourite, the price of the other horses tend to lengthen. The second favourite is the 'second best' horse in the race acoding to punters and therefore still has a very good chance of winning. If his price is higher than it should be, then in the long run he is valuable to follow.

Statistics if Available:
Various statistics have been shown on this but most have a strike rate in the vicinity of 15% to 25%. The POT varies and is usually around a 10% loss to a 15% profit.

Rating: (five star system)
Ease of Use : *****
Profitablity : **
Strike Rate : ***
Overall : ***

Comments:
Worthwhile for those who are just going to the racecourse for a flutter, but for a professional gambler I would steer clear of this as in the long run the results are mixed.

Horse Tipping Systems

2005-12-04T01:56:00.000-08:00

Hi,

Welcome to my blog. Since everyone is blogging these days I thought I would join it with my passion for horse racing. I will paste various ideas and systems here and follow up with them to see how they go.

My goal is to add as many systems here as possible.

If you have a system worth mentioning please add a comment with the parameters and I will give it a go.

Good Luck everybody.