Horse Tipping Systems: 12/04/05

System 3 - 366 System

This system goes around the forums every few months. It is a good system that has a good basis.

How is it done:
There are various forms of this system but most of them revolve around finding races where there is a horse which has a win strike rate of at least 30% and a place strike rate of at least 66%. There are subtle differences between mutations of the system on whether to back horses in certain grades, whether to back 2 horses in the same race, etc.

Reasons behind why it might work:
This system is based on good advice. Stick with horses which have proven they can win and win consistently.

Statistics if Available:
None that I have as of yet.

Rating: (five star system):
Ease of Use : ****
Profitablity : Unknown
Strike Rate : Unknown
Overall : ****

Comments:
This is based on sound advice and can be a worthwhile system. The problem with this system is like all others which have a high strike rate and that is a low dividend. These horses are usually odds on or if showing good odds are usually up in a grade which is beyond them. Definately worth investigating.

System 2 - Beaten Favourites

Beaten favourites can be a hit and a miss type of betting scheme, it generally involves betting on a a last race favourite who lost.

How is it done:
Bascially you look at the previous race ( or races ) of each horse and find horses where they were favourites but lost.

Reasons behind why it might work:
All beaten favourites are generally underbet by the public. Punters see that they were beaten last time when favourite and assume that he could be beaten again today.

Statistics if Available:
None that I have as of yet.

Rating: (five star system)
Ease of Use : ****
Profitablity : Unknown
Strike Rate : Unknown
Overall : **

Comments:
There are too many unknowns with this type of betting scheme. I haven't done any figures but if someone wants to do the research for me it would be appreciated. I would look at horses which may have lost in very compeitive races last time when they were favourite and are either dropping in class for this race or the horse looks like it could improve. This of course requires more analysis and the ease of use dramtically reduces.

System 1 - Second Favs in Group 1 Races

The first system to be layed out on this blog is one a lot of recreational punters use. It is a favourite for those who like the occassional flutter and want to get a better price then the favourite is offereing.

How is it done:
It involves sticking to the best quality races ( Group 1 ) and betting on the 2nd favourite.

Reasons behind why it might work:
Punters usually overbet the favourite and sometimes create false favourites. The second favourite is thus underbet and pushed into profitability. Bookies have to balance their books and with all the weight of money on the favourite, the price of the other horses tend to lengthen. The second favourite is the 'second best' horse in the race acoding to punters and therefore still has a very good chance of winning. If his price is higher than it should be, then in the long run he is valuable to follow.

Statistics if Available:
Various statistics have been shown on this but most have a strike rate in the vicinity of 15% to 25%. The POT varies and is usually around a 10% loss to a 15% profit.

Rating: (five star system)
Ease of Use : *****
Profitablity : **
Strike Rate : ***
Overall : ***

Comments:
Worthwhile for those who are just going to the racecourse for a flutter, but for a professional gambler I would steer clear of this as in the long run the results are mixed.