System Variables

Each day I will look at one of things people use in systems.

Here is the first.

1. Win % - Most systems look at the win percentage.
Why?
Because win are backing horses for a win so it would be better to back horses which have/are winning. This factor in itself does tell us much as it does not tell us if this horses has a high win % because it won 1 from 1 (thus 100%). It needs to be taken with a grain of salt until applied to other factors such as class and distance. Its no good backing a sprinter to win a 3200m race against Makybe Diva because it has a slightly better win percentage.
Problems?
Win % needs to be taken over at least 5-6 races. You alos need to check when the wins occurred as a horse winning a lot of races early in its career might no longer be winning any races. This needs to also be looked at in the context of the competition. A horse winning a 7K race is not the same as a horse winning a 70K race or a 700K race.
Commonsense Meter
High